We all know that most weather forecasters have trouble getting the forecast right for next weekend, never mind next winter. But it's always fun to see what they have to say anyway. Here are some forecast's from Accuweather.com
Henry Margusity's Forecast
COLD AND SNOWY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES. WARM ACROSS THE WEST, WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD SHOTS INTO THE PLAINS.
Discussion: There is no overall clear signal to this winter's weather. We are in a neutral phase of the ENSO (El Niņo-Southern Oscillation) event, which neither the La Nina nor El Nino conditions will dominate. I guess one could say that the clear signal is no signal from any ENSO events. The winter forecast is primarily based on the neutral ENSO and pattern recognition from this summer's pattern and the early fall weather. We have seen the axis of the trough last winter over the western Mississippi Valley, but over the summer that axis has shifted into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We have also seen the extension of the tropical ridge across the Southeast and the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for the hurricane tracks this year. I believe that ridge will break down and the winter jet, once it sets in, will tend to buckle over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We should also have a strong jet plowing into the Pacific Northwest, which will lead to frequent storms in the Pacific Northwest. The other storm tracks will be a clipper pattern that will bring snow from the Midwest to New England and a coastal storm track that will lead to at least one or two major snow events in the I-95 corridor.
Starting in the West: The overall weather will be warm and dry as the ridge position remains stationary. I don't see a lot of storms hitting California, which means a high fire danger later in the winter.
The Plains: While not all that snowy, there will be frequent shots of arctic air. These will be quick shots, lasting a day or so before the warm air returns. Freezing drizzle and freezing rain might be the dominant precipitation because low-level, cold air is in place.
The Southeast: I think the Southeast will end up on the warm and dry side. This will not be good news for the Southeast, but the reality of the pattern shaping up for the winter.
For snow lovers, the Great Lakes and Northeast is the place to be as clipper-type systems will bring small amounts of snow, but frequent snow events.
I think the I-95 corridor folks from Richmond to Boston could finally have the snowstorms they so wished for. I think at least one or two major nor'easters will hit that area with snow events in the 6- to 18-inch range.
Joe Bastardi's Forecast
COLDEST WINTER IN FIVE YEARS
2008-09 Winter to Be a Cold Slap in The Face in the East
AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi today released his
2008-09 Winter Season Forecast addressing issues of average temperature and
precipitation impacting the nation. His forecast calls for one of the coldest
winters in several years across much of the East.
The core of cold was centered across the Midwest last year but is expected to be
farther east this year. Bastardi says the winter of 2008-2009 will be viewed as
the hardest in several years. "It may be a shock to some when compared with the
above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr'
in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while,"
he cautions.
"In the eastern half of the nation, people will look at the winter as bookends
of cold," Bastardi said. He says the overall colder and snowier winter will be
off to a cold start in December with perhaps the roughest winter month for much
of the nation. It may finish with another cold spell in late January and
February.
Between the bookends of cold, Bastardi expects "the January thaw of old winter
lore" but it will offer only a temporary break to consumers. "The winter as a
whole in the population-dense eastern third of the nation will be a one-two
punch of higher heating prices and lower temperatures. Given this economic
environment, the winter will push some homeowners to the brink," he concludes.
In some cases, homeowners trying to keep their residences as warm as last winter
could spend hundreds of dollars more this heating season.
Temperatures across most of the West will be warmer than last year and should be
warmer than normal, which will help consumers by keeping heating cost increases
in check. The northern Rockies and Northwest will still have more snow than
normal but not as much as last year, where some locations developed a snow pack
that reached twice normal levels.
The Midwest was blasted by snow last year and many communities ran very low on
salt to keep roads clear of ice. Despite the elevated cost of salt this winter
season, these areas will receive a break in the form of less snow than last
year. Unfortunately, the East will not turn out as lucky, as more snowfall than
last year is expected."